Smarter football predictions, backed by the numbers.
Win probabilities, correct scores and goal markets for every upcoming fixture. Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
–Today matches
–Today leagues
–1X2 hit rate
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Welcome to goalpre.com — the machine learning models for smarter football predictions
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1X2 & Over/Under
Home, draw and away probabilities plus Over/Under 2.5 goals for each match, with the most likely correct score.
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Two prediction engines
Compare a classic Poisson goal model with a KPI confidence index built from form, venue strength and head-to-head records.
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Today, weekend & more
Browse predictions by day — today, tomorrow, the weekend or any league — and track how past tips performed.
Top 5 · 1X2 high confidence
Highest-probability match-winner tips for today, shown for both the Poisson and KPI engines.
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Top 5 · Over/Under 2.5 high confidence
Highest-probability goals-line tips for today, shown for both the Poisson and KPI engines.
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Data
Coef. = decimal pre-match odds for the displayed tip. Expand “Market odds” for all outcomes. Best available compares only returned bookmakers; availability and prices can change. Low odds are not a sure bet. Predictions are model estimates.
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–1X2 hit rate
–Correct score
–Over/Under hit rate
–Tracked settled predictions
Latest 2 rounds of results from popular leagues only.
1X2 results
Date
League
Match
Tip
Pred. score
Result
Verdict
Over/Under 2.50 results
Date
League
Match
Tip
Exp. goals
Result
Verdict
How the predictions are calculated
Every tip on this site is produced by a Poisson statistical model, the same family of models used by professional football-rating systems. No tips are hand-picked.
Team strength. Each team gets an attack and defence rating derived from goals scored and conceded, normalised against the league average.
Expected goals. For a fixture we compute expected goals for each side: λ_home = attack_home × defence_away × league_avg × home_advantage, and the mirror for the away side.
Score matrix. A Poisson distribution turns each λ into the probability of 0,1,2… goals. Multiplying home×away probabilities gives a full score grid (0–0, 1–0 …).
Outcomes. Summing the grid gives 1 / X / 2 probabilities, the most likely correct score, expected total goals and the Over/Under 2.5 split.
KPI engine. Switch the Data toggle to KPI for an alternative, stats-weighted prediction. It builds a KPI Confidence Index from win rate, venue form, recent form, head-to-head dominance and average goals — see the README for the exact weights.
Fixtures and results are supplied by API-Football after the updater runs. Probabilities and expected goals are estimates from this site’s own models, not official API-Football forecasts or measured xG. Predictions are for entertainment and study only — no gambling advice is implied.